Tagged: Race

Adapting Community Organizing to Rural/Suburban America

Community organizing is typically associated with large urban areas.  Since the beginning of modern community organizing, the most disenfranchised low-income communities of color have been concentrated in urban America, so most social justice organizations grew within urban spaces.

However, today more black, Latino and Asian people live in the suburbs than in the urban core.  For about two decades, young white urban professionals have been migrating back into inner cities to be closer to job opportunities and escape the long commutes of suburbia, finding them more appealing as planners and businesses have reinvested in downtowns and crime rates have fallen.  The skyrocketing rents and evictions from urban gentrification have pushed low-income communities of color out to older suburbs, moves which were aided by subprime mortgages, the housing bubble and local openness to booming sprawl development.  At the same time, new immigrants to the US are increasingly moving directly to suburbs and rural areas in search of jobs rather than entering in traditional gateway cities.

In this sense, California is a glimpse into the future of the rest of the country.  The tech boom in the Bay Area drove working-class families out of San Francisco and Oakland and into Pittsburg, Antioch and Stockton.  The housing bubble pulled black, Asian and Latino families from LA into cities on the outskirts like Riverside, San Bernardino and Ontario in search of cheap housing and job opportunities.  The vast agricultural regions of the Central Valley and the Central Coast have boomed in population with Latino immigrants.  The result is that not only is California as a whole majority-minority, but every significantly populated region of the state is too.

I believe community organizers should be accountable to our people, wherever they live.  The fact that the vast majority of social justice organizations are still in urban areas, while most low-income people of color are not, is a serious failure of the social justice movement as a whole.  We need to build our capacity to organize in many of the places where our communities live and are suffering from regressive social policies, lack of public services, vicious attacks on immigrants, etc. due to the void of progressive political influence.

Half a year ago I made a conscious choice to move to a rural/suburban area to organize.  Now as my organization goes through strategic planning, I’m thinking a lot about the challenges, but also the opportunities.  I think that as more social justice organizations appear in rural and suburban America, we’ll learn to better adapt our organizing models to the unique conditions here.

I know it will take much smarter and more experienced people than me to figure all of this out, and I know I’m not the first person to delve into this subject.  But here are some of my thoughts so far:

Challenges:

1.  Scarcity of progressive organizations means groups can’t specialize.  There are often only a handful of relatively small organizations willing to collaborate on campaigns, they are often more service or cultural oriented, and unions, churches and neighborhood associations are much more conservative than their urban counterparts.  In urban areas like Oakland, SF or LA, there is a vibrant ecosystem of organizations, all of whom have their own niches and strengths– this means some groups can focus on policy research while others focus on grassroots basebuilding while others focus on developing coalitions, messaging and strategy while others focus on electoral campaigns.  Here an organization like mine has to spread itself between all of the above on multiple political issues.

2.  Conservative elected officials.  In most of these areas, city councils, commissions and school boards, the key decision-makers, do not yet reflect the recent demographic change.  These towns have been run by “good ol’ boy” networks for a long time, and the elected officials are mostly old white men who are much more conservative than the people they now represent.  They are skeptical of progressive policies and feel unaccountable to the majority of their constituents.

3. Low population density means organizing wide geographic regions.  There is a pure logistical difficulty of having staff spread out over a wide rural area.   My organization recently expanded to cover a region of over 100 miles.  Since it takes two hours to drive from one end to the other, this means paying rent for multiple offices.  Multiple offices also makes coordinating and supervising staff a huge challenge.  And we have almost no ability to organize major actions where all of our neighborhood groups gather together for one rally, etc.

4.  There are real Republicans here.  And they’re angry.  Although whites are now minorities in rural/suburban California due to younger migrants, the older generation that lives in many of these communities is especially conservative.  Many openly express deep visceral anger about the demographic changes that have happened and still see the neighborhoods they live in as their homes that outsiders have invaded.  Urban organizations are simply not used to encountering this type of opposition within their own base areas.

5.  Local governments not prepared to provide services for low-income populations.  The suburbanization of poverty has dumbfounded suburban governments who have never had significant numbers of poor residents who rely on buses to get to work, neighborhood parks for exercise, or community colleges for their children.   Some services like public transit are simply more difficult to provide in suburban/rural communities, where low density makes it difficult to cost-efficiently run frequent bus routes.

Opportunities:

1.  Grabbing low-hanging policy fruit.  Organizations in progressive coastal cities often try to develop new innovative policies to address issues like unemployment, environmental hazards, education achievement gaps, youth violence, etc.  Many of the more basic victories have already been won years ago.  In more conservative smaller cities, some of the best tried and true policies that make big impacts have never been passed.  Rather than doing extensive research and convincing a local government to experiment with something new, organizations here can push for policies that have already been adopted in other areas and often have rigorous academic studies proving their success.

2. Filling electoral voids.  As mentioned earlier, suburban and rural California is now majority people of color, but most local elected officials are still conservative old white men.  Often these new diverse communities vote for the “good ol’ boy” candidates that don’t represent them because they’re the only ones on the ballot, or simply don’t vote for local offices at all due to a lack of worthwhile candidates.  These elected officials aren’t used to competing hard for their seats and have yet to feel the heat of how the communities they represent have changed politically.  Progressive, young, diverse candidates running for office fill a void and are relatively easy to elect.

3.  Getting coverage in easy media markets.  Although these areas have experienced rapid population growth, local news outlets have a small town mentality.  They receive a fraction of the press releases, op-eds, or letters to the editor they would in urban areas and often have a sleepy civic life so actions organized by social justice organizations are shocking and newsworthy.  Easy access to front page articles or the opinion page opens great opportunities to re-frame debates on local political issues.

4.  Access to swing state and federal representatives.  California’s most closely divided seats in Congress and the state legislature are in rural or suburban areas with changing demographics like the Central Valley, Central Coast and Inland Empire.  Elected officials from either party have to compete hard for their jobs (now thanks to redistricting) and are often politically moderate, making them important targets on state or federal legislation.  In comparison, organizations in urban areas with staunch progressive representatives have little ability to help pass state or national laws.

5.  The community has a hunger for it.  Places like West Oakland are a bit saturated with organizing.  People are used to “the community man” from one organization or another coming and knocking on their door talking to them about some campaign, and are sometimes skeptical or have been burnt out by their previous involvement in a different organization.  Not that any place can ever have too much organizing.  But in rural and suburban communities, there’s a lack of engagement and action and people have a hunger for it.

So the bottom line:  I don’t know what the ideal model for organizing outside the urban core is.  But it needs to be done and an increasing number of organizations are doing it.  I think there’s obviously a need for a stronger emphasis on electoral work.  To some extent organizations may have to become jacks of all trades and not specialize in particular issues or strategies.  Besides that I don’t know.  Have any thoughts?  Leave them in the comments.

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Should Social Justice Activists Give Up on Race-Based Affirmative Action?

Pretty soon the Supreme Court is probably going to hammer the last nail in the coffin of affirmative action.  The court will be hearing the case of Abigail Fisher next week, a young white woman who was denied admission to the University of Texas, Austin and blames it on affirmative action.

I think progressives should take this opportunity to give up on fighting for race-based affirmative action.  Not because it’s a bad idea, but because those of us who care about equality in education will be much more strategic and effective fighting for class-based affirmative action.

First I want to explain why I’ve always been a supporter of race-based affirmative action.  I think institutionalized racism is so deeply embedded in every facet of our society that people’s education and economic outcomes are strongly affected by it from the cradle to the grave.  I know there are some deniers out there.  But if that inequality of opportunity wasn’t real, then why do racial achievement gaps persist so strongly?  Let’s say certain types of people usually seem to win a hypothetical contest millions of times over.  You can only really come to two conclusions:  Either those types of people have some unfair advantages in that contest, or they are just naturally better.  I’m assuming nobody who reads this blog is going to say white people are on average naturally smarter.  So that leaves unfair advantage.  Because education is so critical to success in the modern world, if some groups enjoy an unfair advantage over others, we have a moral responsibility to fight that.

As a product of the University of California system, where affirmative action was banned in 1995 by Prop 209, I’ve seen the exciting sneak preview of how this Supreme Court case will likely turn out for the country:

Yeah it’s kinda like that.

California’s affirmative action ban has led to a campus filled mostly with kids from the upper-middle-class suburbs of the Bay Area and Los Angeles.  The many attempts to promote racial diversity by the UC system since Prop 209 have largely failed.

But sometimes, it’s less important what you wish could happen, and more important what you can actually win.  

This Supreme Court, the most conservative in modern history, will probably strike down race-based affirmative action.  Neither the majority of the American public nor the majority of our elected officials seem interested in keeping it.

A good political strategist knows when to throw in the towel.  But a better political strategist knows when to seemingly throw in the towel, and when their opponent raises their hands in victory, hit them in the chin with a dirty ass upper-cut.

Social justice activists could abandon attempts to defend race-based affirmative action while organizing a broader coalition around class-based affirmative action that includes low-income whites.  This is probably more politically winnable, legally defensible, and may be just a better policy for achieving social justice.

I’d propose some kind of comprehensive economic disadvantage index that includes factors like a student’s household income, parents’ educational attainment, neighborhood poverty rate, and what percent of students from their high school go to college.

While this doesn’t address direct discrimination by college admissions officers, it would still work against the inequality affecting youth in communities of color.  Students who make it through the barriers of growing up in East Oakland or South LA will still get recognition in college admissions for the struggles they faced.

More importantly, class-based affirmative action might do more to advance equity in education anyway.

The current racial categories used in admissions are not very accurate measures of students’ privilege or disadvantage.  An observant college student might notice the disproportionate share of the campus’s black community whose parents immigrated from Africa and the Caribbean.  Or the fact that virtually all the Asians on campus seem to be Korean, Taiwanese or Indian.  Despite the fact that many Southeast Asian communities in the US have similar levels of poverty to African-Americans and Latinos, they get lumped in the same “Asian” category as wealthier groups like Indians.  And even though black immigrant communities have higher education levels and lower poverty rates, they are treated the same as black communities struggling with the legacy of American slavery.

What finally convinced me is a landmark recent study that showed racial inequality in education seems to be falling, while class inequality in education is on the rise.  (See graph on right.)

The struggle for racial justice today is largely defined by the institutionalized racism that leads to deep and persistent poverty in communities of color.   It’s a deep and complex web of oppression and no policy tool is going to be perfect.

But movements have to be built on victories.  At a time when a backwards fall seems inevitable, class-based affirmative action is something we can win.

The Real Problem in the American Education System: It’s the Poverty, Stupid

The Chicago teacher strike has sparked a heated debate about how much to blame teachers for America’s failing schools.  I think this totally misses the point.  American public schools aren’t failing in general, American public schools are failing poor people.

It’s time we start considering something a bit more uncomfortable.   Maybe generations of education reforms to improve schools in low-income communities haven’t worked because the problem… is poverty itself?

The much-hyped failing schools you see in documentaries simply don’t exist in wealthy communities.  There’s a reason they didn’t film Waiting for Superman at Bel Aire Elementary School.  An unwitting viewer might then accidentally reach the conclusion that teachers unions were producing outstanding results in public schools.

In fact, even rich kids in failing  urban school districts succeed.  Despite the miserably low test scores of average Chicago public school students that have become a media feeding frenzy, for white children from non-poor English-speaking households, test scores in Chicago public schools are actually higher than the average school district.  So if you’re a middle-class white parent in Chicago, you really should send your kids to those awful public schools– they’ll probably turn out great.

I’ve attended a low-performing public school in a low-income community and an outstanding public school, serving mostly middle and upper-middle class students.  Both had teachers unions, tenure, bureaucratic school districts, and like any workplace, some people were just good at their jobs and some just weren’t.

So why the inequality?  I want to get up on a mountaintop, grab a megaphone and yell “It’s the POVERTY, stupid!”

We’ve reached an odd consensus in Washington, where both Democrats and Republicans believe that teachers unions are the main barrier to improving the American education system.  (Credit to Michelle Rhee for single-handedly permanently shifting the American political debate— not something most people can claim).

Yet only about one-third of the achievement gap can be explained by in-school factors.  The remaining two-thirds are the result of factors outside of the school.  When kids have poor nutrition or untreated health problems or unstable housing or parents who don’t have the time/education to read/talk to them in high vocabulary or they’re ducking bullets on the way to school, it makes an enormous impact on their ability to learn.  Yes, teacher quality is the largest in-school variable affecting education outcomes, but most of the real difference is coming from influences outside the classroom.

I believe the reason the American education system has such a large disparity between rich and poor is because America has such a large disparity between rich and poor.

America’s education system is exceptionally bad compared to other countries at educational opportunity for low-income children.  Not like that one country that attaches its own name to the word “Dream” to symbolize how they’re the land of opportunity.  Oh wait.  Fuck.

Well, at least there are other countries doing worse than us.  Suck on that, Czech Republic!

Not only do we have high inequality in education between rich and poor students, unlike racial achievement gaps, it’s actually getting worse.  Note that the big growth of this achievement gap has pretty closely mirrored the widening gap between rich and poor in the US from the late 70’s until today.

This all leads to what might seem like a dismal conclusion:  Poor kids will never have high-performing schools.  Even if Michelle Rhee personally teaches every one of them herself, spurred to work extra hard by the incentive of being constantly watched by a panel of parents who can drop her into a pit of spikes below the classroom with the pull of a lever.

Yes, that sounds depressing.  But is it really?

I’m not saying we can’t close the achievement gap.  I’m saying to address a problem, look at its root.  And most of the root cause of this problem lies in factors outside the classroom related to poverty.  Our political debate is totally ignoring the biggest root of the problem.

Yes, eliminating poverty in America seems harder than just converting all our schools to charter schools or replacing all teachers with TFA kids or some other education reform idea that hopefully doesn’t cost any money.

But we’ve made huge reductions in poverty before, during the War on Poverty in the 1960’s.  We know how to do it, we just stopped caring a couple decades ago.  In fact, I would say we know how to reduce poverty better than we know how to turn around failing schools.

Sure, we can still figure out how to make schools as effective as possible.  But debating the best method of getting better schools for poor kids gives up on the radical idea that maybe those kids don’t have to be poor.

What They’ll Say About Julian Castro When He Runs for President

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For a person of color running for office, a hint of the radical left is the kiss of death.  We live far from a “post-racial society”, but most voters do seem to be willing to give a candidate with a funny name who looks different from them the benefit of the doubt as long as they’re squeaky clean all-American on the inside.  However, that trust can evaporate quickly if the candidate evokes memories among white voters of the more confrontational racial politics of an older generation.

The speculation of San Antonio Mayor and DNC keynote speaker Julian Castro being the first Latino president someday makes sense with almost mathematical precision.  A charismatic Latino governor of Texas who carried the massive state for the Democratic Party in 2024ish when changing demographics have made it possible would lock down the electoral map.

However, the right wing is great at playing the guilt by association game.  And Julian Castro, like many young politicians of color who awkwardly bear the label of being “post-racial”, also holds the liability of being tied to the radical left on the national stage.

Castro’s mother, Rosie Castro, was an activist in the Chicano Movement of the 1970’s who helped found a political party called La Raza Unida and unsuccessfully ran for San Antonio city council.  Julian grew up an activist baby, marching in rallies with her as a kid and working on campaigns as a teenager.  He credits his mother for his political consciousness.

For a delightful preview of how this story will be told as he runs for higher office, check out this profile on conservative blog Breitbart.com:

 

Indeed, he, along with his twin, Joaquin, currently running for Congress, learned their politics on their mother’s knee and in the streets of San Antonio. Their mother, Rosie helped found a radical, anti-white, socialist Chicano party called La Raza Unida (literally “The Race United”) that sought to create a separate country—Aztlan—in the Southwest. 

Today she helps manage her sons’ political careers, after a storied career of her own as a community activist and a stint as San Antonio Housing Authority ombudsman.

Far from denouncing his mother’s controversial politics, Castro sees them as his inspiration. As a student at Stanford Castro penned an essay for Writing for Change: A Community Reader (1994) in which he praised his mother’s accomplishments and cited them as an inspiration for his own future political involvement.

 

If the story seems all too familiar, it’s because it feels exactly like the attacks on Barack Obama’s associations with Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Van Jones, Bill Ayers, and his own mother and father.

A perfect example of how these attacks easily tap into a latent fear of The Other lying in the heart of voters is the new movie just released called 2016: Obama’s America.  Never heard of it?  Well it’s grossed over $20 million in the last week and a half, making it the fifth highest grossing political documentary in American history.  It’s probably because you’re an urban coastal college-educated liberal and all your friends are too.  Go outside sometime.

Written by Dinesh D’Souza, it closely mirrors a book written by the same man, called The Roots of Obama’s Rage, which essentially claims that Obama, in his desire to bring himself closer to his estranged father, adopted the elder Obama’s Kenyan anti-colonialist anger and secretly hates America, blah blah blah.  You can find a good synopsis here.

I suspect as more and more “The Next _____ Obama” candidates start to pop up, these young progressive people of color will be increasingly witch hunted with ties to the radical left dug up among family, friends, professors, spiritual leaders, and coworkers.

Why?

Because there are a lot of politically radical older people of color out there and young people of color know them.  They might be close family.  But even for those without politically active parents, most people who enter the world of politics, especially those breaking boundaries, usually do so with the guidance of older mentors and advisers.

Maybe Barack Obama’s father did have anti-colonial anger.  Maybe it’s because the British committed atrocities in their colonization of Kenya and much of the suffering in Africa today is connected to the aftermath of colonialism.  And I can imagine that Rosie Castro’s life growing up as the daughter of Mexican immigrants in Texas in the 1950’s might make her support the radical edge of the Chicano Movement.

The truth is, people of color have faced a lot of really fucked up shit in history.  And some people are, not surprisingly, going to be mad about it.  And although young people of color who run for office haven’t personally experienced Jim Crow or the Japanese Internment, and many of their feelings toward racial politics might hold more hope than anger, they will probably know at least one person in their community who is angry about American history.

All of this is not to say that Julian Castro shouldn’t run for president.  It’s meant as a warning to people like me, young people of color who have contemplated running for office and have family members who would end up on one of Glenn Beck’s chalkboards if we ever did.  It’s to say that America is not post-racial, there are deep wounds waiting to be peeled open, and anyone who wants to run for office should be prepared for their opponents to deliberately pick at those racial wounds until they bleed.

That being said, Castro 2024!

Why I Think We’re Going to Win

American progressives act like a teenager who’s gotten so used to being rejected for prom and picked last in dodgeball that we just keep our heads down and try to make it through another day without getting our asses kicked.  The message I want to send to the American political left is similar to what I want to tell all disaffected and awkward teenagers.  I want to grab them by the shoulders, shake them and say “Chill the fuck out!  You got this!”

It’s fair for progressives to feel like losers.  After all, we’ve mostly been fighting defensive, losing battles for a solid forty years, leaving us with a nation of gaping income inequality, a tattered social safety net, and immense corporate influence over elections and lawmaking.  We’ve been beat not only in the arena of laws and government, but in the arena of ideas:  The commonly accepted worldview in America every day seems to bear a closer and closer resemblance to the Hunger Games, with ruthless competition and inequality accepted as the necessary conditions for the prosperity of life’s winners.

So when the Supreme Court upheld health care reform, setting the stage for the rollout of arguably the most historic victory for the left in a generation, many of us were stunned.  Not because we thought Obamacare was actually unconstitutional, but because we’ve seen the right wing consistently dominate nearly every major American institution, including the Supreme Court, and expected a losing vote along ideological lines.

But progressives, get your boots on, because we’re entering a new era of ass-kicking.  And no, the asses being kicked won’t be ours.  I believe we’re going to win this round of history and here are my three reasons why.

 

1.      Their Coalition is Falling Apart, Our Coalition is Coming Together

The right’s coalition is essentially made of three parts:  working-class rural evangelicals, wealthy pro-business social moderates, and national security war hawks.  All three loved Ronald Reagan, a unity that lasted through much of the Bush years, but ultimately ended in fracture best seen in the 2008 GOP presidential frontrunners: Mike Huckabee (working-class evangelicals), Mitt Romney (Wall St. types), and John McCain (war hawks).

Like any coalition, it was built over time.  In the late 1960’s, the Republican Party created the “Southern Strategy”, a plan to wedge working-class Southern whites away from the Democratic New Deal Coalition that had held dominance since the time of FDR.  Nixon and his strategists used racial issues and the Democratic Party’s passage of civil rights legislation in the 1960’s to make white Southerners place their political allegiances with the side that served their racial interests, not the side that served their economic interests.  The emergence of the Christian Right in the late 1970’s pulled working-class rural whites further into the coalition.  The religious establishment embarked on a campaign to politicize their base and move into partisan politics and media, starting organizations like Focus on the Family and the Moral Majority.  Through much of American history, war has enjoyed strong bipartisan support.  But neoconservative war hawks gathered under the banner of the right in opposition to the peace movement of the 1960’s and 70’s.  They argued that a powerful American military presence was necessary to secure global freedom in the face of communism, and later Islam.  Thus national security interests became aligned with the religious and economic interests of the right wing, as protecting the Christian American tradition and free market capitalism became the main motive for use of US military force around the world.  And Wall St. pro-business types?  Well, they’ve been with the right since the days of Herbert Hoover.  By 1980, the modern conservative coalition was solid enough to usher in decades of social change according to their demands: deregulation of industry and finance, slashing the social safety net, and dramatically lowering the top tax rate.

However, in the aftermath of the Bush years, the mess of the Iraq War, the financial crisis of 2008, and finally the crushing loss to Barack Obama, this coalition began to unravel.  With politics focused on the economy, the main fissure came at the seam between rural evangelicals and the pro-business establishment.  Many conservatives, suspicious of Wall St.’s ties to government, believed the Mitt Romneys of the world had sold out their small-government conservative principles for corporate welfare and might even secretly not quite believe in their social values, only embracing them at arms length in order to get the votes of rural evangelicals.  (Now why would they think that?)  Grassroots conservative activists saw this as part of some larger morality play, where the reason the right had lost in 2008 was a lack of faithfulness to its right-wing principles.  This tension finally erupted into the Tea Party, a movement of raw anger not just directed at Obama, but also the Republican Party establishment.  The schizophrenic GOP primary of 2012 made clear that a large portion of conservatives could barely stomach Mitt Romney and everything his part of the right wing coalition represented.  The coalition may remain intact as long as they are united by a common enemy (Obama), but it seems to be inevitably on the verge of collapse.

Meanwhile, a modern progressive coalition is uniting closer than ever before.  Throughout world history, the left has mostly been a ragtag team of disenfranchised groups who through some miracle (and a lot of hard organizing) managed to band together under some general values like equality, community, compassion etc.  Yet this coalition is often fraught with arguments over who is more oppressed and whose progress should be the priority, like a pissed off hydra whose multiple heads can’t decide which enemy to bite and often just bite each other.  Environmentalists sometimes find themselves at odds with organized labor, who sometimes take positions against immigrants, who sometimes vote in opposition to LGBT people, who sometimes help gentrify black neighborhoods.  But I think we’ve recently seen a historic consolidation of our progressive coalition.  Just this year, the NAACP and the National Council of La Raza both endorsed marriage equality for gays and lesbians for the first time.  In 2009, the two federations of labor unions in the US for the first time came to an agreement supporting comprehensive immigration reform.  Environmentalist groups teamed up with unions in 2006 to create the Blue Green Alliance advocating for green jobs.  Meanwhile, mainstream environmentalist groups have begun to adopt the principles of environmental justice.  Urban community organizations have been doing groundbreaking coalition work between blacks and Latinos, fighting the narrative that pits American born low-wage workers against immigrants.

Like the right wing coalition that was built over a decade from the late 60’s to the late 70’s, this modern progressive coalition will take some time to reach its true strength.  But the signs are clear: there is more unity on the left, and less unity on the right, than any time in recent history.

 

2.      Modern Communication Technology is Eroding the Right’s Advantage in Messaging

Over the last few decades, conservatives have won the war of ideas.  The basis of right wing ideology (individualism is the natural way of things, government is always bad, racism doesn’t exist anymore, etc) has become the basis of American political thought in general.  For a long time, the right has simply had stronger, more cohesive messaging.  I’ll acknowledge some of it is just that their communications people are smarter and more strategic than ours.  But I think much of it comes from political psychology, and the different ways that conservatives and liberals approach political communication.  Studies have shown that people who identify as conservative have stronger impulses to respect authority and more group discipline.  They also think more in the language of abstract values and principles than policy analysis and comparing outcomes.  Thus the right has a natural advantage in top-down, highly cohesive, simplistic messaging.  In other words, they’re bred for the age of talk radio and cable news.  Thus, as talk radio and cable news eclipsed print newspapers and as people began to prefer TV commentators shouting at each other over the old boring evening news anchors, the effectiveness of conservative messaging grew.  Right wing media moguls like Rupert Murdoch learned how to use the media effectively as a political tool and built an empire of news outlets that reached millions of Americans.  The TV commentators of the left were no match for the titans of conservative cable TV (think Keith Olbermann vs. Bill O’Reilly).  Republican Party political figures coordinated their messages with conservative activists and media pundits much more closely than the Democratic Party did with left-wing activists.  It all relied on the willingness of conservatives to all roughly stick to the same set of messages and talking points distributed from the top down.

On the left, cohesive messaging has never been our strong point.  Most of us hear a simple, powerful political argument and say something like: “Well what you didn’t mention is how this group is affected, and the potential unintended consequences of that policy.  Here’s a series of statistics and a great Noam Chomsky book to explain what I mean.”  We’re a less homogenous group, so we tend to craft messages in ways that help mobilize our own communities.  The way we talk to a middle-class white college student about health care reform is different from how we talk to a middle-aged black mother or an uninsured immigrant service worker, and the different parts of our coalition have a hard time sitting down at the table to come up with some talking points that work for everyone.  If the Democratic Party tried to hand down talking points to progressive journalists, nonprofits, and professors they would get smacked upside their collective heads.  When we try to communicate our message to political moderates, it ends up being full of wonky facts to contradict the dominant conservative worldview (“GDP growth has no correlation with marginal tax rates!”) or fringe-sounding arguments that use unfamiliar academic language (like “reproductive justice” and “intersectionality”).  What we don’t do is collectively articulate our own values in words people understand and clearly frame our vision of a different world.  Without strong, unified messaging, we quickly lose ground in major policy debates.  For example, when you poll Americans on individual parts of the Affordable Care Act, virtually all of them get solid public support, including majority support among Republican voters for many major provisions of health care reform.  However, when you ask Americans whether they approve or disapprove of the law overall, it remains widely unpopular.  We managed to take something the American public liked and wanted, and let the right convince them that they hated it.

But the light at the end of the tunnel is here!  We are entering an age of new media.  Having conservative TV pundits, radio show personalities, Republican politicians, right wing advocacy groups and think tanks all arguing from the same set of talking points is becoming less and less advantageous.  The era of Rush Limbaugh is over!  All hail the era of the viral infographic!  And we’re great at viral infographics!  Anyone can create their own content that would appeal to their own social network, and thus micro-target our messages to the narrowest of socioeconomic, demographic or regional categories.  Policy wonks and political junkies can share news and data in a way that is visually appealing and accessible, and have it spread virally out to the grassroots.  Here, the top-down approach of strict adherence to a set of talking points will fail.  People don’t click on a link to the same dogmatic argument they’ve heard for years.  People don’t obediently share memes made by the Republican National Committee.

Of course we’re still at the beginning stages of this change.  Most people get their news from the traditional sources still, and although the Bill O’Reillys and Glenn Becks of the world are on the decline, they remain powerful.  However, we know where things are headed and it can only be good for us on the left.  What social media is allowing us to do is crowdsource our messaging.  In fact, it’s what we progressives have been doing all along, it just wasn’t working before.

 

3.      Our Base is Growing, Their Base is Shrinking

We are a demographic bomb that’s going to explode in Rush Limbaugh’s face.  The best part is, he knows it.  Even between the 2008 election and the 2012 election, the voting bloc of young people, single women and people of color identified by liberal strategists as the “Rising American Electorate” will have grown by millions.  In fact, the RAE accounted for 81% of the population growth in the country between the 2000 Census and the 2010 Census.  Progressive-leaning demographic groups are steadily rising as a share of the voting population, and conservative-leaning groups are declining.  No one believes this trend is going to turn around any time soon.  Soon enough, America will look like California and California will look like LA.  And astonishingly, the GOP and the right as a whole are proving themselves either a) laughably incompetent at appealing to anyone other than straight white males or b) actually crazy enough to be willing to shrivel up and die rather than give up racism, sexism and homophobia.  Maybe it’s just that people are smart enough not to trust an ideology that’s been trying to screw them over for all of human history just because they get a Cuban senator who offers up a watered down version of the DREAM Act.  Either way I think it’s safe to say that everyone saw this coming and in 30 years what’s left of the Republican Party will be wondering why they actively chose to dig their own grave generations ago.

Rather than moderate their views on issues like immigration or women’s rights, conservatives are making last ditch attempts to ensure this demographic change does not lead to political change.  They know if all those immigrants’ kids whose parents they tried to deport, all those young single women whose ability to sue for equal pay they filibustered, and all those young people whose college tuition they raised, actually register to vote, turn out at the polls, and get politically organized, they’re totally fucked.  It might explain many Republican members of Congress’s reversal on the (formerly) bipartisan DREAM Act, or any other proposal that would allow undocumented immigrants to become citizens and vote.  Today’s slew of voter suppression laws and voter registration purges spreading across the country, supposedly designed to address some nonexistent wave of rampant voter fraud, are a transparent attack on young people, immigrants, and low-income communities.  UFO sightings are more common than voter fraud in the US, but somehow conservatives around the country have decided this is an important issue that needs to be dealt with, preferably before November 6, 2012.  The right has also developed an obsession with taking down organizations that enhance the political power of those progressive-leaning groups: ACORN, Planned Parenthood, unions, etc.  Perhaps the scariest is the Tea Party vigilante “True the Vote” groups that are traveling all over the country to intimidate voters at the polls, again under the strange assumption that there’s some epidemic of illegal college student voters trying to ruin America.

These kind of tactics might work for a while.  They succeeded in the post-slavery South for a few generations between Reconstruction and the Civil Rights Movement.  But in the end, they’re a desperate short-term strategy that will fail.  Eventually the right will have to concede that they ignored the writing on the wall and have spent most of history trying to limit who was defined as part of the “real America”, as Sarah Palin would say.  But as their idea of “real Americans” becomes a smaller minority of the population, they will either have to acknowledge the humanity of others or shrivel away into the margins of the history books.

However, demographic change does not automatically produce political power.  If California is a predictor of what the national population will look like soon, it is also a warning that conservatives can have an influence far disproportionate to their share of the population if they remain more politically organized.  Voter education, registration and turnout efforts will help win political battles.  But this must be combined with stronger stances to make real progress on issues like college affordability or immigration reform (I’m looking at you, Democratic Party establishment).  A voter taken for granted is a voter who has better things to do on election night.  However, with some tough organizers and some accountable elected officials, we can change the electoral map in the United States, and thus the realm of political possibility, forever.

 

The Roadmap to Victory

From the late 1960’s to the late 1970’s, conservatives built a powerful movement that fundamentally altered the course of the nation’s history.  They stood upon a bedrock foundation of America’s strongest institutions: big business, the church and the military.  Unified, clear, and values-based right-wing messages echoed through millions of homes in the era of talk radio and cable news commentators.  Elections still mostly hinged on who could win the votes of older white males, and conservatives rallied monolithic support from this base.

But at the beginning of the 21st century, this movement has begun to stumble.  A rift has appeared between the grassroots conservatives of America’s heartland and the business elites that dominated the Republican Party.  The media megaphones of the right, Limbaugh, Beck, O’Reilly, are beginning to fade from prominence.  And their single-minded focus on older white voters is backfiring, as a more diverse and progressive generation comes of age.

I believe that the history books will one day read that starting in the late 2000’s, the progressive movement began to shift the balance of power.  The books will say that starting around this time, a series of stunning alliances formed between groups with historical tensions.  Unions, immigrants, civil rights groups, LGBT activists, environmentalists and more began to stick together under a banner of solidarity based on the basic values of fairness, community and dignity.  They ultimately failed to come up with anything resembling a cohesive message, but in the age of social media it didn’t matter.  Their ideas spread like wildfire across social networks, with millions of grassroots activists and everyday supporters writing blogs, sharing news, creating graphics that communicated the values of their movement.  And starting in 2008, something changed:  the presidential election didn’t depend on who won the votes of older white males, but on black and young voters turning out to the polls like never before.  From then on, the tide began to shift, and a new growing majority looked at the politicians who had dismissed them in favor of the “real America”, and this new majority declared: “We are the real America.”